Surprise Gachapon Planner

The 2nd Anniversary gachapon, a straight re-skin of the Magic Celebration machine. Pick your packs, see what the week earns and what the shops can pay for. Runs Oct 26 to Nov 1 (7 days); Nov 2 to 4 is redemption only. Rates come from the official draw odds (Normal + Lucky Mode, refunds folded in): ≈0.89 Honey-Orange and ≈28.8 Amethyst Lollipops per coin; adjustable in Advanced settings.

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Surprise Gachapon

Festival Tycoon

Anniversary Lucky Wheel

Honey-Orange Lollipop: rare currency, premium shop

Amethyst Lollipop: volume shop currency

1 coin = 25 pts on obtain ·

1 Honey-Orange Lollipop = 1 pt on obtain · levels reset daily (official)

Spending profiles

Pick a spending profile and follow its day-by-day plan, or set your own Honey-Orange Lollipop target and the planner builds the cheapest jade plan for it.

⚠️

Expect big RNG swings. Rates are computed from the game's published draw odds (Normal Mode, Lucky Mode, the 25% coin refund and gift Luck all folded in), so over a full week most players land close to these numbers, but any single run can come out luckier or unluckier than the averages. The Honey-Orange Lollipop Random Chest payout (10/15/20, avg 10.26) is still an assumption from previous events; the rest is a 1:1 re-skin of the Magic Celebration gachapon.

Preset profiles

Custom plan

Enter your own targets and hit Calculate. It builds a fresh plan from these three numbers alone; whatever preset or packs were selected before are ignored.

Honey-Orange Lollipops wanted e.g. 1100 for one Big Prize (Beyond Optional Chest, Statue of David, Li Gang's Mace or a ×1 material stack), 2200 for two

Max jade to spend 0 = free-to-play (no packs)

Gems to spend on coins 200

each, max 70/day (98,000 for the full week)

Jade packs

coin & lollipop packs you plan to buy

Candy Coin packs25 pts each

Daily · limit 1/day, enter days to buy

One-time · bought on the day the plan needs them

Tick these to add them to whatever plan is showing; the daily plan re-schedules around their coins automatically. To build a plan around a lollipop target and budget instead, use Custom plan → Calculate.

You don't have to buy every day; set how many days you'll buy each pack. The planner buys dump day first, then the days before it.

Lollipop Packs2/day each

Total purchases across the whole event (max 14 each). All four cost the same ≈18.2 jade per Honey-Orange Lollipop; their lollipops also score 1 pt each on the purchase day.

Advanced settings

rates, dump day & event tuning

Gem-shop coins per day 200 gems each, cap 70/day; refreshes daily, can't be saved for later days

Amethyst → Honey-Orange exchanges 160🍬 → 10🍭 each, max 3 for the event; claimed where they cross a level (+10 pts each)

Dump day where the coin backlog, banked boxes and big pack buys concentrate

Honey-Orange Lollipops per coin ≈0.89 from the official odds: 0.2/spin in Normal Mode plus Lucky Mode draws, folded per coin claimed (refunds included)

Amethyst Lollipops per coin ≈28.8 from the official odds (16/spin Normal + 20 per Lucky draw, folded per coin claimed)

Refund coins per coin played Normal Mode returns your coin 25% of the time: ≈0.33 extra coins per coin, each worth 25 pts on the day you SPIN (this is what makes banking pay)

Rates & assumptions

Other coins per day untracked sources: mail, guild gifts, side events

Daily quest coins

Sign-in Book coins per day the Anniversary Check-in Book pays Candy Coins on its days 1 to 6 (= event days 1 to 6): 5 coins per day, confirmed in the live patch tables (SignID 109)

Hold the Sign-in Book for Day 7 the book's rewards wait until you claim them, so leave its Candy Coin days unclaimed and claim them all on Day 7, where their points land on the push. Pick "from Day 2" if you already claimed Day 1

Bank days 2 to 6 spin only on Day 1 and the push day; the days between just collect. Drops the two extra T2 days the allocator would otherwise buy (−40 lollipops on average) in exchange for a push that cannot miss T4

Mail Candy Coins per day 5 arrived by mail on Oct 26; assumed 5 every day (not in the game tables, so adjust if the mail stops or changes)

Hold all mail for Day 7 mail waits in the mailbox: leave it unclaimed all week and claim everything on the final day so its obtain points land on the push (the coins would be banked for the flush anyway)

Points per coin obtained

Points per Honey-Orange Lollipop obtained

Event days

Daily targets

Play until the in-game bar crosses the day's level, then stop and bank the rest. Exact coin counts aren't shown because per-play RNG swings too hard to promise them.

Shop planner

what your projected earnings can pay for

The Amethyst → Honey-Orange exchange (160🍬 → 10🍭, max 3) is handled by the toggle in Advanced settings, so it's not listed here.

Model notes

Game mechanics (official rules + datamined tables)

· Gachapon Point levels reset daily (official: "progress rewards, quests, Gem purchases, and packs refresh daily"). A Candy Coin is worth 25 pts the day you obtain it; a Honey-Orange Lollipop is worth 1 pt the day you obtain it. Amethyst Lollipops score nothing.
· Normal Mode odds per spin: Honey-Orange ×4 (5%) · Amethyst ×50/×30/×20 (10/20/25%) · your coin back (25%) · Anniversary Gift (2.5%) · Gems ×36 (12.5%). The refund chain means every coin claimed is ≈4/3 spins.
· Lucky Mode: each coin spent gives 5 Luck, each gift sent gives 15; 20 Luck = 1 lucky draw (auto-consumed while spinning). Lucky draws pay Honey-Orange ×15/×8/×5 (2.5/10/10%), Amethyst ×50 (40%), a gift (5%), Gems ×66 (30%) or Two Years of Sweetness shards ×10 (2.5%): 1.675 Honey-Orange and 20 Amethyst per lucky draw. Folded per coin claimed: ≈0.89 Honey-Orange, ≈28.8 Amethyst, ≈13 gems.
· Banking is the whole strategy here. A banked coin carries ≈9.2 pts to whatever day you spin it: its refunds (⅓ coin × 25 pts) plus its Honey-Orange drops (≈0.9 pt). Bank the week's backlog and spin it all on the final day and that day crosses T5 in one push; spend-as-you-go leaves every day at T1/T2.
· Anniversary Gifts are currency: sending one is 15 Luck ≈ 1.3 Honey-Orange + 15.6 Amethyst + ~15 gems. The T1 milestone pays one gift daily and the coin packs carry 3 to 20 each; the sim counts both (gift lollipops score their point on the day the luck is consumed).
· Honey-Orange Lollipop Random Chests are modeled as ×10 (95%), ×15 (4.9%) or ×20 (0.1%): 10.26 average, 10 guaranteed. Still an assumption from previous events; the chest payout is the one number not in the published odds.
· Baseline 96 coins/day (26 quests + 70 gem shop) = 2,400 pts, 600 short of T2 (3,000) if you spin nothing that day. The Anniversary Check-in Book pays 5 Candy Coins on each of its days 1 to 6 and day 1 adds a 3-coin login gift. The book's rewards can be saved, so the planner leaves them unclaimed and bulk-claims them on Day 7, moving up to 750 obtain points onto the push (Advanced settings: "Hold the Sign-in Book for Day 7"; default "from Day 2" since many players claimed Day 1 before this was known, and it scores the same as holding the whole week).
· Candy Coin mail: 5 coins arrived by mail on Oct 26 and the planner assumes 5 every day (it is server mail, not in the game tables, so adjust in Advanced settings if it changes). Leave the mail unclaimed all week and claim all of it on Day 7 (default): the coins would be banked for the flush anyway, so holding costs nothing and moves 875 obtain points onto the push. The plan flags this on Day 1 and Day 7. Delaying the book also shifts its Random Dice onto Festival Tycoon days 2 to 7, which helps there too.
· Milestone extras not modeled: T1 Energy ×10, T2 Meteoric Iron ×20, T3 to T5 a 2nd Anniversary Cake each (a Home item that expires: build it quickly) (the T1 Anniversary Gift IS modeled). Gems (50/100/200/300/500) are counted in the gems tile. Total-draw and guild-draw milestones exist but aren't modeled yet.
· At event end, unused coins and redemption items convert to Gold (official), so the final day always spins everything and opens every box. The Nov 2 to 4 window is redemption-only: shops stay open, no milestone points, no draws. The Gachapon Fund (battlepass) gives no Candy Coins and is not modeled.

How the planner thinks

· The planner assigns each day a target level by marginal value (boxes gained per point spent), treating the coin backlog and every box opening as one flexible points budget. It deliberately shows only the level to hit: per-spin RNG is far too swingy to promise "N coins = the level", so spin until the in-game bar crosses the target, then stop and bank the rest. The final day spins everything and opens every box.
· On free income: bank everything for the final day. With the Candy Coin mail and the Sign-in Book both held for Day 7, the free plan plays T2 on Day 1, banks days 2 to 6 and pushes Day 7 to T5 for ≈1,641 Honey-Orange Lollipops at zero jade. The T5 crossing has about 430 pts of cushion, roughly one standard deviation of refund luck, so it lands about 4 times in 5. A miss is not a disaster: the push still clears T4 and the week ends near 1,150, so one Big Prize lands about 97 times in 100. Whether you claimed the book on Day 1 makes almost no difference (82.4% vs 82.7% for T5). The allocator also keeps a 400-pt risk reserve unspent, so it never buys a marginal spins-funded early level by shaving the big push's cushion.
· Coin packs land their 25 pts/coin (and their gifts' luck) on the purchase day, so daily pack purchases are scheduled dump day first, then the latest days. One-time packs (V and VI) are bought whole on the day whose level push they fund. Lollipop Packs (2/day each) score their lollipops as points on the purchase day, so each purchase goes to the day where it actually crosses a level.
· The Amethyst → Honey-Orange exchange is placed where it crosses a level (+10 pts per redemption, at most +30). It costs 160 Amethyst per 10 Honey-Orange; all 3 redemptions cost 480 Amethyst, an easy yes.
· Honey-Orange and Amethyst Lollipop income doesn't care when you spin: totals are fixed by how many coins you claim all week. Only the milestone points move; banking just decides which day collects the refund and drop points, so holding the backlog for the dump day costs nothing.
· Pack economics: Lollipop Packs are the flat lollipop price (≈18.2 jade/lollipop, all four sizes identical). Candy Coin packs pay coins (0.89 lollipops + 25 pts each) plus gifts, so they're both lollipop income and level fuel. The planner mixes them: lollipop packs for raw lollipops, coin packs where a day needs points to cross a box-paying level.
· When several dump days tie on expected Honey-Orange Lollipops, the planner prefers non-final days (a failed big day early can be retried), then the least overshoot on non-final days, then the earliest day. You can force any day in Advanced settings.